A general model for thermal refuges in Canadian Atlantic salmon rivers

Thermal refuges—especially cold tributaries and the cool-water plumes they create—are becoming essential habitat for salmon, yet their size shifts over time and is costly to measure through field surveys or drone-based thermal imaging. This project aims to build a general, multi‑site model capable of estimating Potential Thermal Refuge Area (PTRA) across salmon rivers using physiographic, hydraulic, and hydrometeorological predictors, expanding earlier site‑specific machine‑learning models developed in Québec. By compiling existing datasets, adding new field surveys from at least ten Canadian rivers, comparing statistical and data‑driven modeling approaches, and generating a prioritized list of key refuges, the work will support more effective protection and management of these critical habitats; under this grant, INRS will assemble and process thermal‑refuge data—including orthorectifying drone‑based TIR imagery—from rivers in Québec and the Maritime provinces.